2021 6A Preseason Composite Rankings




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How do our forecasts work?

 Lone Star Football's game and playoff forecasts are the main focus of my page, and are my main tool for combining sports with data journalism to create compelling stories with numbers.  The system I use is called the Elo Rating System, named after Arpad Elo, who made the system. It was originally made for chess, but has been used for a wide variety of different games and activities. The system starts by assigning ratings to teams, and uses those ratings to create game forecasts, which are used to update the ratings after the game.  I don't want to take credit for coming up with all of this data and functions, because I adapted them from FiveThirtyEights NFL Forecasts to fit Texas high school football. For my system, I use data going back to the 2018-19 season to make these ratings. So at the start of the 2018 season is when all teams ratings start. While that is a very limited amount of data, its all the data I've been able to find en masse. Maybe in the future I'll t...
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Houston - 2021 6A District 16

Click here to learn how my forecasts work Elo Rating - The rating assigned to a team, which changes every week based on if they win or lose, as well as by the quality of the opponent.  Percentile - The percent of teams within their classification that this team is ranked above.  1 week change - How much the teams Elo rating changed as a result of the last game.  Record - The most likely record that the team will end the regular season with, based on thousands of simulations.  Point diff. - The average of the difference in points scored and points allowed in the regular season, based on thousands of simulations. Make Playoffs - The chance the team will make playoffs, based on thousands of simulations of the remainder of the season. These are rounded, so the totals may not add up to 400%. 
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Dallas - 2021 6A District 6

Click here to learn how my forecasts work Elo Rating - The rating assigned to a team, which changes every week based on if they win or lose, as well as by the quality of the opponent.  Percentile - The percent of teams within their classification that this team is ranked above.  1 week change - How much the teams Elo rating changed as a result of the last game.  Record - The most likely record that the team will end the regular season with, based on thousands of simulations.  Point diff. - The average of the difference in points scored and points allowed in the regular season, based on thousands of simulations. Make Playoffs - The chance the team will make playoffs, based on thousands of simulations of the remainder of the season. These are rounded, so the totals may not add up to 400%. 
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